The multi-University project studies modeling methods to analyze materials flows that result from policy instruments aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions from passenger cars and light trucks. A set of linked models account for producer and consumer behavioral responses to GHG reduction policies. These forecasted market responses are integrated into a novel framework for predictive life cycle and material flow analyses (LCA/MFA). Major tasks are: 1) model vehicle design options and materials use for their costs and performance; 2) evaluate the market penetration of these options by modeling their performance in the context of market-based and regulatory policy instruments, producer objectives, and consumer preferences; and, 3) evaluate the consequences of market responses on global materials flows and life cycle emissions using a system optimization framework.

Evaluation of Environmental Policies on the Automotive Market
by Katie Kerfoot, PhD Pre-candidate in Design Science

This research focuses on creating models to predict the effects of environmental policies on the automotive market. Game theoretic simulations that capture producer objectives, consumer preferences, and vehicle design are constructed and used to evaluate policy effectiveness. Shifts in vehicle design and sales at market equilibrium can be observed as policies change. These new equilibria give insights into how specific policy scenarios affect the environmental impact of automobiles and the potential societal burdens of reducing this impact.

Downloadable materials: Policy Evaluation ODE poster